Overall, it’s looking like this could be a bullish week. With the market near its 52-week highs, we might see new all-time highs before the week is done.
We begin July’s options expiration week. Monday is typically bullish. In the past couple decades, this Monday has shown strength in the Dow and NASDAQ 75% of the time. Other than seasonality, there is nothing special here.
The bullishness tends to continue through Tuesday. Again, nothing really special here; no interesting earnings or economic data. A boring start to a generally bullish week, overall.
Crude inventories come out. It’s likely we will see negative numbers, as we have for the past two weeks. Wednesday will likely be the most bullish day of the week, so take your long positions earlier if you’re planning on adding positions.
In addition, YUM, CXI, and KMI are reporting earnings.
Thursday gives us news on natural gas, jobless claims, and the US PPI. We should see Wednesday’s bullishness continued into Thursday. In addition, we have several big companies reporting their earnings:
JPM, DAL, BLK.
If we are going to hit new highs this week, it’s going to be Thursday, most likely.
Options expiration. This is a seasonally bearish day for stocks. In the past we’ve seen losses of up to 5% on this day.
The probability that the market will be down on Friday is 60%. If you have any bearish positions to open, do so on Thursday close. I wouldn’t hold current bearish positions all the way to Friday, as the Wednesday and Thursday gains could hurt you – close Monday or Tuesday and then reopen Thursday evening.
More economic data will come out Friday, including US CPI, US IPI, US CCP, and retail sales. Its possible that much of this news will show the economy in a bad light. As for earnings reports, this is going to be one for banks. We have WFC, C, PNC, and USB reporting. Also reporting is MRVL.